Spurred by high energy prices and the continued dislocation of supply chains, inflation is at a multi-decade high in many developed markets. Central banks in developed states, unused to dealing with runaway price growth, are under pressure to respond. However, the supply side pressures that underlie the inflationary surge are not amenable to tighter monetary policy.
Taming inflation without choking off the post-pandemic recovery will be difficult to achieve. Soaring energy and food costs will hit consumption, but higher interest rates could apply a brake on economic activity in other damaging ways. Further problems could emerge if the major central banks follow divergent paths—which seems possible given differences in headline and core inflation among major markets.
A discussion between:
- Megan Greene, Dame DeAnne Julius Senior Academy Fellow in International Economics at Chatham House; Senior Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School; Member of the Oxford Analytica Expert Network
- Catherine Guillemineau, Professor at EDHEC Business School and International University of Monaco; Member of the Oxford Analytica Expert Network
- Sarah Fowler, Analyst, International Economy, Oxford Analytica
Moderated by: Nick Redman, Editor in Chief and Director of Analysis, Oxford Analytica
Each session is supported by a background briefing curated by our team of expert analysts who produce our flagship publication, the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief. These in-depth briefings are circulated to attendees in advance of each call and are available as written articles published in the Daily Brief.