Key takeaways: October 2022
Brazil faces a second-round presidential run-off on October 30 following the first round on October 2, in which former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won 48.4% to 43.2% for incumbent Jair Bolsonaro on 79% turnout.
Key takeaways: September 2022
The US midterm elections will take place in a mixed economic context. The economy entered a recession in the second quarter of 2022 and inflation rose above 9% in the middle of the year.
Regional war in central Africa
Forecasting track record: September 2021
We began warning of rising tensions in the east of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in 2018 and argued that growing instability in the region could lead to a wider proxy war.
How WTW and Oxford Analytica Pinpoint Today’s Geopolitical Risks
Case study: August 2022
WTW, the third largest insurance broker in the world, operates in more than 140 countries and has a workforce of more than 45,000 employees. They offer their clients data-driven, insight-led solutions in the areas of people, risk, and capital.
Key takeaways: August 2022
The global economic slowdown will be shallower than the COVID-19-induced recession but will last longer with risks of economic and debt crises, and the potential for long-term scarring in some regions.
ESG investment and reporting: Reframing sustainability
Case study: July 2022
Oxford Analytica partnered with EY to publish EY’s in-depth report, The emerging sustainability information ecosystem, which explores the answers to existential questions now facing environmental, social and governance (ESG) investing and reporting.
Forecasting track record: July 2022
Spurred by high energy prices and continued supply chain dislocation, inflation is at a multi-decade high in many advanced and developing economies.
Europe's Energy Strategy in Flux
Key takeaways: June 2022
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is threatening to undermine the European Union’s climate and energy objectives. Instead of accelerating the phase-out of fossil fuels,
Cost of living crisis - trouble ahead
Key takeaways: June 2022
The world is confronted by many crises, which will diminish living standards through 2022/23, and threaten food supply across the world and especially in vulnerable regions such as the Middle East and North Africa.
Indonesian leader’s reform push falters
Forecasting track record: May 2022
When President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo pledged reforms to attract greater investment at the October 2019 inauguration ceremony for his second and final term, we predicted that his plans would encounter serious difficulties.
Cryptocurrencies and sanctions amid the Ukraine war
Key takeaways: May 2022
Divisions between crypto-evangelists and their opponents have never been this stark. Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, Western governments have been concerned that the Kremlin could use cryptocurrencies to evade financial sanctions.
Guaido versus Maduro in Venezuela
Forecasting track record: April 2022
Opposition groups designated Guaido as ‘interim president’ in January 2019 following the re-election of President Nicolas Maduro in discredited polls. The United States and other countries subsequently recognised Guaido as interim president and handed over control of some Venezuelan state assets to his team.
Where next for the war in Ukraine?
Key takeaways: April 2022
More than eight weeks into its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has taken control of eastern regions but has not succeeded in capturing Kyiv. Ukraine’s armed forces have remained cohesive and have proven effective.
Forecasting track record: March 2022
The Keystone XL pipeline, an additional route for getting Canadian crude to US refineries, has been buffeted by competing national, commercial and environmental interests since it was proposed in 2008.
Upgrading the UK: The Digital Connectivity Opportunity
Case study: March 2022
Oxford Analytica partnered with Virgin Media O2’s PR firm Portland Communications to produce the first-ever Digital Connectivity Index.
Key takeaways: March 2022
The pandemic had already caused a widespread, global recession that struck the engines of the global economy - work, production, trade, and the distribution of goods.
Forecasting track record: February 2022
Rule of law, autonomous institutions and media freedom -- unique in China -- long underpinned Hong Kong's status as an international financial centre. Beijing's intervention in Hong Kong's political autonomy has dismantled the political opposition, muzzled civil society and silenced dissent.
International Women's Day 2022
Key takeaway: February 2022
To celebrate International Women's Day, we have the honour of celebrating two extremely talented experts at Oxford Analytica: Isabella Bunn and Stina Warnstam Drolet. Isabella is an expert in ESG (environment, social and corporate governance), and is an international legal adviser and Professor of Ethics specialising in global justice and ethical aspects of international economic law.
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