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Moscow expected its all-out attack on Ukraine to be over within weeks, perhaps even days, when President Vladimir Putin announced his ‘special military operation’ on February 24, 2022. It was a serious miscalculation. Russian troops captured parts of southern and south-eastern Ukraine, but by September the tide started turning as Ukrainian forces drove the Russian army from large swathes of land. They were bolstered by Western artillery and air defence systems, but morale, organisation and planning kept them going.

Presently, neither side is in a position to make substantial further gains, but each is planning a new surge: Kyiv to regain more of its territory, and Moscow to inflict some sort of defeat. Putin’s aims are still uncertain; he sometimes talks of only securing the south-east, and then returns to his desire to remove the Ukrainian government. The contest centres on military strength, and more importantly, resilience and will. Russian and Ukrainian political objectives are so diametrically opposed that there is nothing they can conceivably negotiate about.

Oxford Analytica’s conference call on March 15 will bring together experts to discuss key questions:

  • Will Russia or Ukraine tilt the conflict in its favour this year?
  • Would change on the battlefield alter the calculations made in Moscow, Kyiv and Western capitals?
  • What is the state of public opinion on the war, in both Russia and Ukraine?

A discussion between:

  • Paul Chaisty, Professor of Russian and East European Politics, University of Oxford
  • Dr Jade McGlynn, Leverhulme Researcher in the War Studies department at King’s College London
  • Sergei Souglobine, independent political risk consultant based in Kyiv and long-term Oxford Analytica contributor on Ukrainian politics and economics 

Chair: Nick Redman, Editor in Chief and Director of Analysis

Background briefings

Each session is supported by a background briefing curated by our team of expert analysts who produce our flagship publication, the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief. These in-depth briefings are circulated to attendees in advance of each call and are available as written articles published in the Daily Brief.

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