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Moscow expected its all-out attack on Ukraine to be over within weeks when President Vladimir Putin announced his ‘special military operation’ on February 24, 2022. It was a serious miscalculation. Russian troops captured parts of southern and south-eastern Ukraine, but by September the tide started turning as good morale, organisation and planning enabled Ukrainian forces to drive the Russian army from large swathes of land.

Presently, neither side is in a position to make substantial further gains. But each is planning a new surge: Kyiv to regain more of its territory, and Moscow to inflict some sort of defeat. The contest centres on military strength and, more importantly, resilience and will. Russian and Ukrainian political objectives are so diametrically opposed that there is nothing they can conceivably negotiate about.

Download our latest white paper where our experts consider the likely trajectory of the conflict, as well as the separate politics and economics of Ukraine and Russia that set the context for each country’s ability to maintain the war effort.