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The death in custody of Mahsa Amini, a 22-year old female student, in mid-September has triggered the most widespread protests that Iran has experienced in decades. They have been led by women,  with schoolgirls and students prominent, and have drawn support across society. They come against a backdrop of rising hopelessness among Iranians in the wake of the pandemic, rising food prices and the stalemate in negotiations to revive the JCPOA nuclear agreement and so ease the sanctions on Iran.

Although much of the focus is on internal dynamics, a diplomatic crisis is brewing. In an effort to gain leverage in JCPOA negotiations, Iran has progressively withdrawn cooperation from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). As a consequence, the IAEA is now close to referring Iran to the UN Security Council. While Tehran can rely on a Russian veto to prevent the snap-back of UN sanctions, this step would likely trigger fresh US and EU sanctions. It would also threaten to escalate an undeclared shadow conflict between Iran and Israel.

Join Oxford Analytica’s conference call on November 16, where our experts will examine the risks facing Iran:

  • How much of a threat do the protests pose to Iran’s authorities and system of government?
  • To what extent do economic challenges affect the outlook?
  • How close is Iran to being referred to the UN Security Council, and what might follow from such a step?

A discussion between:

  • Roham Alvandi, London School of Economics and Oxford Analytica region head
  • Sara Bazoobandi, German Institute for Global and Area Studies and member of the Oxford Analytica expert contributor network
  • Edmund Herzig, University of Oxford and Oxford Analytica region head

Chair: Nick Redman, Director of Analysis, Oxford Analytica

Background briefings

Each session is supported by a background briefing curated by our team of expert analysts who produce our flagship publication, the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief. These in-depth briefings are circulated to attendees in advance of each call and are available as written articles published in the Daily Brief.

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