Oxford Analytica has refreshed the risks in its Global Risk Monitor, which monitors a set of low-probability, high-impact geopolitical risks on a two-year time horizon.
The February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine underscored the potential for geopolitical risks to have a dramatic impact globally: grain and energy prices in Latin America and Southeast Asia spiked, as they did in the rest of the world. The invasion also focused minds in many companies on the prospect of a conflict involving Taiwan, and the physical and sanctions risks that would follow from that.
The Global Risk Monitor (GRM) monitors a set of low-probability, high-impact geopolitical risks on a two-year time horizon. The GRM covers twelve risks across every major continent. Many consider the possibility of armed conflict; some focus on a political shock with economic and strategic implications; and one considers risks in the cyber domain. For governments and companies, these are vital risks to monitor—but the bandwidth to do so can be limited.
Download the recording for Oxford Analytica’s webinar, held on June 28, where our experts explain the methodology behind the GRM and focus on four of the twelve risks:
- A conflict over Taiwan
- The risk of war between India and Pakistan
- A political rupture in Brazil
- A prospective cyber attack on the critical infrastructure of a Western state
