Scenario Planning


Identify alternative futures that may impact your organisation

Approach


Scenarios are useful for challenging assumptions based on trend projections, particularly in times of high uncertainty. They provide a structured framework to consider multiple possible outcomes and how these outcomes might be realised. They are an essential component in moving your strategy from reactive to preparedness.

We work closely with you to identify how your organisation can most effectively use scenarios to improve strategy and outcomes. Our scenario planning options include:

  • Scenario frameworks and narratives based on your regions and sectors of interest
  • Quantitative modelling and stress testing
  • Interactive scenario analysis training and facilitation of workshops

Deliverables


A typical engagement will include one or more Scenario Planning workshops led by our Advisory team, in which you interact with members of our expert network, as well as pre- and post-workshop written deliverables, and a final report.

Case studies


For Commerzbank: Scenarios for Sustainable Trade to 2030

We provided two thought leadership reports that highlighted and reinforced the long-term importance of sustainable trade, and the banking sector’s role therein. ‘Insights: Five drivers of sustainable trade’ analysed the five key drivers of sustainable trade in the next 10-15 years. The second report analysed the outlook for sustainable trade by examining distinct, high-level scenarios with different implications for sustainable trade over the next 10-15 years. The reports were published by Commerzbank.

For Allianz Global Investors: Scenarios for Chinese Private Pensions

We provided a scenario analysis of the Chinese private pensions market. We worked with more than 30 academic experts, financial analysts, regulators and practitioners in and outside of China to establish the key trends and uncertainties that impact the market. We collaborated with Allianz Global Investors to create four different scenario narratives, capturing a range of factors including wage share of GDP and the pace of pension reform. The final report formed part of the client’s Market Trends and Surveys Working Paper series, aimed at encouraging organisations to think through alternative strategies and to put in place contingency plans. The report was published by Allianz Global Investors.

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