Confirmation hearings for President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet nominees begin today, with almost all expected to pass
Senate confirmation hearings for President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet nominees begin today. Trump moved quickly to announce his nominations and, with a 53-47 Republican majority in the Senate, most of his nominations are expected to be confirmed relatively smoothly. Hearings on Pete Hegseth’s nomination to be defense secretary, which begin today, are likely to be among the most controversial but he still appears likely to be confirmed.
What next
Subsidiary Impacts
- Republicans can afford three defections on each confirmation floor vote once new senators from West Virgina and Ohio are sworn in this week.
- Without the numbers to defeat a nominee, Democrats must choose their most politically effective line of confirmation questioning.
- Hearings for Gabbard and Patel, as well as Robert Kennedy, are among those yet to be scheduled.
- Well-coordinated lobbying by pro-Trump groups, plus pressure from the Trump camp itself, should ensure almost all nominees are confirmed.
Analysis
Trump’s initial wish to have his full cabinet confirmed by the Senate before his inauguration on January 20 was always unrealistic. However, the prospect of most nominees making it relatively quickly through the confirmation process — questioning by the relevant Senate committee and then a vote of the full Senate — is better now than in the weeks immediately following his election (see UNITED STATES: Republican win makes challenge unlikely – November 6, 2024).
Early controversy over Trump’s mid-November choice for attorney general of Florida congressman Matt Gaetz, the subject of a House ethics committee investigation, led to Gaetz’s withdrawal from consideration after barely a week once the extent of Senate opposition became clear.
Suspicion in Washington was that the nomination provided Gaetz with a means to leave the House before the ethics report on him could be published, while allowing senators to show they were capable of pushing back on Trump’s choices. Having made a show of resistance on a nominee that Trump was prepared to lose, Senate Republicans would feel less need to demonstrate their independence by rejecting other nominees.
This now largely seems to be the case, although several individuals will have to navigate difficult hearings before their nominations can reach a floor vote, where Majority Leader John Thune will endeavour to keep the Republican majority together to ensure their confirmation (see UNITED STATES: Trump powerplay – November 14, 2024).
This week’s nominees
Several significant nominees are scheduled for confirmation hearings this week.
Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense (today)
Hegseth’s television background as a Fox News commentator is one he shares with several Trump nominees. The Trump team is counting on his time in uniform, first while at Princeton and then as a member of the Army National Guard as an infantry commander in Iraq and subsequently in Afghanistan, to outweigh concerns about personal issues and a lack of managerial or policy experience. They point particularly to his writing on the need to combat a ‘woke’ agenda at the Pentagon as a reason why Republicans should ensure his confirmation.
Trump supporters have mounted a campaign to persuade wavering Republican senators such as Jodi Ernst of Iowa, herself a former Army National Guard captain, to limit their objections to Hegseth. Although his lack of experience remains a serious impediment, a competent performance at his hearings that includes a moderation of some of his positions on professional conduct in the military should give Hegseth a fighting chance of confirmation.
Today also sees hearings for Doug Burgum, a businessman recently turned politician as North Dakota governor (Interior) and former congressman Doug Collins (Agriculture).
Kristi Noem, Homeland Security (January 15)
Noem, the twice-elected South Dakota governor, was considered for Trump’s vice-presidential slot and this nomination repays her steadfast support. Although some of her state policies have been considered controversial, and the California wildfires will mean a focus on the position’s responsibility for the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), her alignment with the Trump agenda, especially on immigration-related issues, makes her confirmation likely.
Marco Rubio, State (January 15)
Still technically a senator, Rubio should have a smooth ride from his colleagues on the Senate Foreign Relations committee and he is likely to be the first nominee to complete the confirmation process.
Chris Wright, Energy (January 15)
The CEO of a fracking company who has expressed scepticism about climate change and the green energy transition, Wright’s positions are less extreme within the current Republican party than outside it, and his alignment with a central aspect of Trump’s policy agenda on fossil fuels will make him difficult to reject (see UNITED STATES: Cabinet choices underscore energy focus – November 18, 2024).
January 15 also sees hearings for Russell Vought (Director, Office of Management and Budget), the architect of Trump’s plan to centralise government in the White House (see UNITED STATES: Trump will control cabinet team tightly – November 25, 2024).
Pam Bondi, Attorney General (January 15-16)
Bondi, who has held this position at the state level in Florida, starts with the advantage that she replaces the unpopular Gaetz, and will be better positioned to answer questions about Trump’s threats to use the justice system against his enemies.
Scott Bessent, Treasury (January 16)
Bessent emerged from several contenders, including eventual Commerce nominee Howard Lutnick, to be chosen for Treasury, and is seen as representing Wall Street in the new administration.
A more controversial nominee with a January 16 hearing is former New York congressman Lee Zeldin (Environmental Protection Agency, EPA). His pledge to strip back EPA restrictions affecting the oil and gas sector means that Republicans may have to close ranks to ensure his confirmation but he should be safe.
Yet to be scheduled
Three other nominees who may face confirmation trouble have been waiting for their hearings to be scheduled.
Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Security)
Gabbard may prove the most vulnerable nominee, especially if Hegseth is confirmed. Although a lieutenant colonel in the military reserve, her lack of relevant experience is a particular issue in the intelligence sector. Her previous statements supporting the Russian line on Ukraine and ousted Syrian President Bashar al-Assad have drawn bipartisan concern.
Moreover, her journey from being a Democrat who backed left-winger Bernie Sanders to a staunch pro-Trump Republican has left her with little support in either party. Unless driven by a determination to see every one of his choices confirmed, Trump appears unlikely to launch a full-scale rescue mission for her nomination if one is needed.
Robert Kennedy (Health and Human Services)
Although a more controversial nominee that Hegseth due to his views on vaccines and food safety, Kennedy has a sufficiently broad constituency both inside and outside the Trump movement to make senators hesitant about blocking his nomination unless he performs poorly during confirmation questioning. Trump may choose to provide active support, even if his expectation is that Kennedy may not remain in the cabinet for the full term.
Kash Patel (FBI)
Patel’s comments about the need to rid US government of ‘deep state’ elements in Washington make him a relatively easy target for a Senate revolt against Trump’s nominations, but the president-elect’s interest in the justice system mean this is a crucial post for him and he is likely to push hard for Patel.
Pete Hegseth (centre) en route to a Senate meeting about his cabinet nomination, December 2, Washington DC. (Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)
Authored by:
Dr Giles Alston
Deputy Director & Senior Analyst,
North America