Noboa re-election in Ecuador is no foregone conclusion

Daniel Noboa and Luisa Gonzalez are headed for their second presidential election run-off in less than 18 months

Presidential elections on February 9 have resulted in a virtual tie between the top two candidates, with conservative incumbent President Daniel Noboa and leftist ‘correista’ Luisa Gonzalez separated by a fraction of a point on around 44% of the vote each. The result has triggered a run-off, scheduled for April 13. Initial legislative election results suggest Noboa’s new National Democratic Action (ADN) has taken most seats, followed closely by Gonzalez’s Citizen Revolution-Total Revolution alliance.

Noboa

Noboa’s efforts to characterise the opposition as the ‘old Ecuador’ and present himself as representing the future appear to have been relatively successful. Social media campaigns have played a major role in bolstering his popularity. His position as the incumbent also gave him a significant campaign advantage, as he was able to use state funding and agencies to support his re-election bid.

Noboa campaigned on a continuity platform, suggesting he would maintain his liberal economic agenda: privileging the private sector over the public, limiting public spending and working closely with the IMF (see ECUADOR: IMF deal will stoke sociopolitical tensions – June 11, 2024).

However, his decision in the build-up to the elections to impose a 27% tariff on Mexican imports suggests his economic programme might be more erratic. That move came shortly after US President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Mexico, indicating an attempt to signal alignment with Washington. With Ecuador lacking the economic clout of the United States, however, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum laughed off the move, quipping that “shrimp from [the Mexican state of] Sinaloa are more delicious than those from Ecuador” anyway (see MEXICO/ECUADOR: Noboa win would see tensions endure – February 5, 2025).

Noboa also campaigned to continue militarising the country to tackle drug gangs and cartels (see ECUADOR: Security crisis will deepen – January 19, 2024). While this move enabled him to build momentum during his presidency, the murders in December of four young boys who had been detained by the army have increased concerns over human rights abuses. Violent deaths also reached record levels in January, raising questions about the efficacy of militarised policing.

Concerns over Noboa’s security policies have probably weighed on his voter appeal, alongside weak economic conditions, which were exacerbated by three months of electricity rationing in late 2024 (see ECUADOR: Electricity crisis poses ongoing risks – December 13, 2024 and see ECUADOR: Power cuts loom as energy crisis continues – September 2, 2024). Meanwhile, his refusal to stand down to campaign, to prevent Vice-President Veronica Abad from gaining presidential powers, has tainted his democratic credentials (see ECUADOR: Controversy could damage Noboa’s election bid – January 8, 2025).

Aware that none of these problems would disappear before mid-April, Noboa pushed hard to secure a first-round victory, and an exit poll suggested he would pass the 50% threshold required to do so. His failure on that front is likely to build a sense of trepidation among his supporters as the run-off approaches, whatever polling says over the coming weeks.

Gonzalez

Gonzalez’s plan for government is similar to the one she presented in 2023, when she narrowly lost in a run-off to Noboa (see ECUADOR: Noboa will struggle in office – October 17, 2023). If she wins, she looks likely to follow similar economic policies to those of former President Rafael Correa (2007-17), including increasing state regulation and public investment and pursuing industrial development.

In the first round of the 2023 elections, Gonzalez won 33% of the vote — around the same percentage that the correista candidate Andres Arauz won in the first round of the 2021 elections (see ECUADOR: Election run-off result will be tight – August 22, 2023).

Last week, she secured around 1 million more votes than in the first round in 2023. This suggests that, although she is probably still the election underdog, the correista constituency has expanded, placing her in a better position to win the run-off than she was previously.

Other candidates

The composition of votes for the other presidential candidates also looks slightly more favourable for Gonzalez than in 2023. On that occasion, candidates from the right comfortably won more than 50% of the vote in the first round, underpinning Noboa’s victory in the second. This time, however, Noboa captured most of the votes from the right in the first round while other conservative candidates performed poorly. This suggests that the overall right-wing vote has fallen.

At the time of writing, Henry Kronfle of the Social Christian Party (PSC) had secured just 0.71% of the vote, while the candidate for the centre-right Construct Movement (MC), Henry Cucalon, had only 0.36%.

Andrea Gonzalez of the Patriotic Society Party (PSP) won 2.7% of the vote after performing strongly in the televised presidential debate. However, she was pushed into fourth place by Iza, who came third with 5.3%.

Pre-election polling suggested that Iza would secure a much smaller vote share, but he performed well in highland provinces, where the indigenous movement is strongest.

Gonzalez will hope to secure Iza’s backing in the run-off, despite his refusal to endorse her in 2023 — a position attributed largely to Citizen Revolution (RC)’s commitment to expanding fossil-fuel exploration and production (see ECUADOR: Struggle over Yasuni/ITT will continue – September 15, 2023). If Iza can win some concessions from Gonzalez in these areas, despite her generally pro-industry leanings, he might lend her his support, which could be decisive.

A stronger commitment to the environment might also win over some of the electorate who cast invalid or blank votes in the first round — around 9% of total votes.

Legislative elections

Initial results suggest the dominance of Noboa and Gonzalez will be reflected in the National Assembly, with ADN — a recently formed coalition that supported Noboa’s 2023 presidential bid before consolidating into a party for the 2025 elections — and RC estimated to win 69 and 64 seats, respectively.

This represents a significant improvement for Noboa and will give him influence over the next government even if he loses the run-off.

If he wins, the executive and legislature will be aligned, which will give him more potential to advance reforms. However, he would still need support from other parties to reach a majority. He would also have to work hard to build and retain party unity, given ADN’s sudden expansion.

RC has the advantage of being a more experienced and unified party than many of its counterparts and will be able to frustrate Noboa’s reform agenda and hold his government to account if he wins. Conversely, it will be relatively well placed to support Gonzalez if she is victorious.

PK, which is estimated to win eight seats in the National Assembly, will probably support RC on certain issues, but RC might still need to find additional support to pass laws, limiting its reform agenda if Gonzalez wins.