Sudan’s Regional Crisis

On April 15, fighting broke out between the Sudanese army, under military coup leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), descendant of Darfur’s feared ‘janjaweed’, under Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo ‘Himedti’. Since then, hundreds of people have been killed across the country and hundreds of thousands displaced. With the capital, Khartoum, severely affected and emptied of most people with the means to leave, the economy is paralysed and the long-promised transition to civilian rule is a very distant prospect. Having evacuated most of their nationals, the wider international community is left without a plan.

Meanwhile, Sudan’s regional neighbours are increasingly worried about the implications. Egypt, Burhan’s key backer, has seen a massive refugee influx, and will fear the impact of the crisis on its dispute over Nile waters with Ethiopia. As fighting mounts in Darfur, nearby Chad, Libya and the Central African Republic, where Himedti’s fighters have already engaged in domestic conflicts, face serious spillover risks. Across the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which have engaged heavily in Sudan in recent years (including by employing RSF mercenaries), look to protect their economic and political investments. 

Oxford Analytica’s conference call on May 17 will bring together experts to discuss key questions:

• Can the army’s jets and heavy equipment win out against the RSF’s more experienced guerrilla fighters – and what will be the cost for the civilian population?
• Do Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE have enough leverage to end the fighting – and can they agree on what a settlement should look like?
• Especially if the fighting relocates to Darfur, is there a risk of a wider fallout in terms of destabilisation across the Sahel?

 A discussion between:

• Magdi Elgizouli, Fellow of the Rift Valley Institute and author of the Still Sudan Blog
• John Lechner, Freelance Journalist and Researcher
• Rosalind Marsden, Associate Fellow at Chatham House and former British Ambassador and UK Special Envoy to Sudan

Chair: Nick Redman, Director of Analysis, Oxford Analytica

This deep dive is a closed webinar only for Oxford Analytica clients. It will benefit those who are in foreign and defence ministries, intelligence agencies, as well as senior executives and those involved in government affairs, legal services and finance, public policy. Not a client? Find out more about the service and how we can help you navigate complex markets.

Each session is supported by a background briefing curated by our team of expert analysts who produce our flagship publication, the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief. These in-depth briefings are circulated to attendees in advance of each call and are available as written articles published in the Daily Brief.