Slower growth and rising rates: global prospects for the second half of 2023

Major central banks have continued to hike interest rates thus far in 2023, with inflation in many markets proving more stubborn than policymakers hoped. The frontlines in the war in Ukraine have shifted little, but late June brought drama in the form of the Wagner mutiny. China’s economy has slowed, Turkey’s president won re-election despite a ruinous earthquake, and Brazil’s president is now six months in office. 

Looking to the second half of 2023, we face a host of questions. How much further will central banks push interest rates? What might be the impact of the Fed halting its cycle before the ECB? Will the divergence in services and goods’ performance in many economies persist, or will they converge—and if so at what level? 

In many parts of the world, governments face a challenge in managing rising debt-service costs alongside weak economic growth and soft revenues, while societies continue to adjust to cost-of-living increases and businesses face tough choices over decarbonisation. Some of those governments face elections before the year-end.

Conflicts continue to rage in eastern Europe and east Africa, and threaten to ignite elsewhere. The risk of default in many regions is rising. US-Chinese rivalry, too, shows little sign of easing. 

Please join us on July 18-20, when over three afternoons we will present our outlook for:

Global Economy, North America and Europe
Date:  Tuesday, July 18, 2023
Time: 4pm – 5pm UK | 11am – 12pm ET

East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia
Date:  Wednesday, July 19, 2023
Time: 3pm – 4pm UK | 10am – 11am ET

Latin America, Middle East and Africa
Date: Thursday, July 20, 2023
Time: 2pm – 3pm UK | 9am – 10am ET

This deep dive is a closed webinar only for Oxford Analytica clients. It will benefit those who are in foreign and defence ministries, intelligence agencies, as well as senior executives and those involved in government affairs, legal services and finance, public policy. Not a client? Find out more about the service and how we can help you navigate complex markets.

Each session is supported by a background briefing curated by our team of expert analysts who produce our flagship publication, the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief. These in-depth briefings are circulated to attendees in advance of each call and are available as written articles published in the Daily Brief.