Germany under new management

As expected, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian ally topped the poll in the February 23 federal elections, with the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) coming a strong second.

The Free Democrats (FDP) will not be in the new parliament, nor will be the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, leaving a chamber in which the CDU’s only option for a two-party majority government is the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which ran the outgoing administration but recorded its worst performance in decades.

CDU leader Friedrich Merz promises mild fiscal loosening, more pro-business attitudes regarding climate change, a step increase in defence spending and Germany’s military posture in Europe, and a tougher immigration policy. The extent to which he can reach agreement with the SPD on these policies, particularly the domestic ones, is open to doubt.

In this webinar, we will examine four main questions:

• The prospects for removing or easing the debt brake, which would require the support of AfD or The Left in the new federal parliament
• The scope for compromise between the CDU and SPD on decarbonisation and immigration
• What role, if any, the Greens might play in the government of Germany
• The prospects for the economy under a new administration

This deep dive is a closed webinar only for Oxford Analytica clients. It will benefit those who are in foreign and defence ministries, intelligence agencies, as well as senior executives and those involved in government affairs, legal services and finance, public policy. Not a client? Find out more about the service and how we can help you navigate complex markets.

Each session is supported by a background briefing curated by our team of expert analysts who produce our flagship publication, the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief. These in-depth briefings are circulated to attendees in advance of each call and are available as written articles published in the Daily Brief.