Midterms usually disfavour the incumbent, but President Donald Trump has reason to hope November 2026 will be different
The United States will mark its 250th birthday celebrations in July 2026 and hold midterm elections in November.
President Donald Trump will not be on the ballot, but the midterms will be the first national referendum on the first two years of his second term. The administration will strive to implement as much of its conservative populist ‘Make America Great Again’ (MAGA) agenda as possible before November’s elections.
What’s next
Historically, voters tend to swing against the president’s party in midterms. However, the 250th anniversary celebrations, during which the Trump administration will seek to conflate patriotism with conservative values, and the prospect of Democratic disarray render uncertain any assumption that the Republicans will lose their narrow House majority. The country’s deep political partisan divide will persist throughout 2026, with the likelihood of further demonstrations by the No Kings movement which opposes many of Trump’s policies.
Subsidiary Impacts
- For business, tariffs will remain a cornerstone of Trump’s economic nationalism, but the highpoint of their use has likely passed.
- Securing access to critical minerals will become an increasingly key part of the trade and peace agreements that the president arranges.
- Hemispheric tensions will remain high with Canada over trade, and with Mexico over drug and human trafficking.
- A review of the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement is due in July, just as the FIFA World Cup co-hosted by the three countries concludes.
- US-EU relations could worsen significantly over security, decarbonisation, climate and trade issues.
Analysis
Party primaries to choose candidates for the midterms start in March, with a heavy concentration falling in June, shortly before celebrations for the country’s 250th birthday on July 4.
Federal and state elections
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be up for election in November. Republicans currently hold a 219-213 majority, with two seats now vacant after Arizona Democrat Adelita Grijalva took her seat this week having won a special election in September. Only twice since Franklin D. Roosevelt’s presidency has the president’s party not lost House seats in the midterms (see UNITED STATES: Midterms reveal Democratic strength – November 10, 2022).
Since most states’ annual legislative sessions end in June, state legislators will rush to finalise redrawing electoral district boundaries to favour their parties’ candidates in November (see US: Redistricting feud will be hard to de-escalate – August 8, 2025). At present, the Republicans are on course to create a total of nine new districts favouring their candidates in Texas, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio, with Democrats creating five for themselves in California and one in Utah.
There will be 35 Senate elections, including special elections in Florida and Ohio. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take back control of the Senate; Republicans need seven to reach the 60 seats required to pass legislation subject to the filibuster (see UNITED STATES: Filibuster reform is unlikely – September 12, 2025). Only six races are considered competitive, with polling at this early stage suggesting each party will win three.
Four of the 36 gubernatorial races are expected to be competitive, all in Democratic-led states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin. Republicans need to win control of seven more state legislatures in order to convene a convention to amend the Constitution — for example in an effort to abolish presidential term limits. Three-quarters of the states would still have to ratify any amendments the convention might propose.
Campaign and policy themes
Crime, immigration and the cost of living are likely to be the three policy themes dominating the midterms. The narrower ‘culture war’ themes of the 2024 general election, such as transgender identity and ‘wokeness’, have diminishing traction with Trump’s MAGA base. Instead, conflating conservative and patriotic values is likely to be a central pillar of Republican campaigns.
Crime, immigration and the cost of living will be major themes in the midterms
Democrats will likely focus on affordability in housing and healthcare, and the impact of inflation. How effectively they link these issues to the president’s economic policies will be crucial for their electoral prospects. However, the party also needs to resolve its leadership crisis and rebuild its broad voter coalition, neither of which will be easy (see UNITED STATES: Virginia election may split Democrats – August 14, 2025).
Energy abundance
The Trump administration will continue to promote energy production, aiming to reduce inflation in the short term by lowering fuel prices and ensuring long-term power generation to support advanced technology sectors, notably artificial intelligence (AI).
Its policies will continue to favour fossil fuel extraction over renewables, while encouraging the development of nuclear power. The administration will continue to remove environmental regulations seen as barriers to energy production and use.
Industrial policy
The White House will continue to point to inward investment and reshoring commitments as proving the success of its tariff policy. These may eventually boost domestic US manufacturing capacity and enhance the resilience of US supply chains, but they are unlikely to create the manufacturing jobs the president has promised due to increased deployment of automation, robotics and AI.
Semiquincentennial
On July 4, the United States celebrates the 250th anniversary of its Declaration of Independence. Celebratory planning by a nonpartisan commission established by Congress in 2016 is likely to be overshadowed by the work of the Salute to America 250 Task Force, which the president set up as soon as he took office.
As well as showcasing US military strength, the extended celebrations will blend US and MAGA values — traditionalism, nationalism, economic protectionism and a strong focus on family and religious values — and counterpoint these principles with the threat the president sees as posed to them by immigration, globalisation and the cultural shifts brought about by ‘wokeness’ and identity politics.
Republicans will hope to benefit from a wave of anniversary-related patriotism
Republicans will hope to ride an anniversary-related wave of patriotism to success November’s midterm elections.
No Kings
Pro-democracy ‘No Kings’ demonstrations could become another potential flashpoint in 2026. The October 2025 protests, involving some 7 million people across 2,500 events, produced one of the largest single-day protests in US history.
So far, No Kings protests have remained mostly peaceful but there is a risk of violence, especially where pro- and anti-Trump demonstrators are not separated. Any outbreak of violence could give the president an opportunity to deploy more troops to major cities (see UNITED STATES: Crime falls; voter concern stays high – September 18, 2025).
Supreme Court
During its current term, which runs until mid-2026, the US Supreme Court will decide on cases involving the participation of transgender athletes in women’s and girls’ sport, voting rights, religion, campaign-finance law and the death penalty.
Particularly significant will be cases the court considers on its emergency docket. These rulings, delivered on expedited timelines and often with little or no transparency into the justices’ votes and reasoning, are increasingly used by the Supreme Court to overrule lower court decisions that would halt the implementation of Trump administration policies.
Foreign policy
US foreign policy will continue to be guided by the president’s America First agenda. Its emphasis on a unilateralist and transactional approach, alongside his preference for personal diplomacy, will mean that US foreign policy will continue to have an element of unpredictability, with goals that are sometimes conflicting.
China will continue to be seen as the primary adversary, with a focus on preventing Beijing, and especially its military, from accessing the most advanced US technologies. Nonetheless, reaching a significant trade agreement with Beijing that benefits Trump-supporting exporters, such as farmers, before the midterms will be a priority, regardless of national security trade-offs.
FIFA World Cup
The United States will co-host the 2026 FIFA World Cup with Canada and Mexico in June and July. The tournament will provide the president with an opportunity to take centre stage before an international audience, but the global spotlight will also attract civil rights and environmental campaigners (see US: World Cup preparations will focus on security – October 31, 2025).
