Exposure Modelling

Measure the potential financial and operational impact of geopolitical events and developments


Our Exposure Modelling service combines our expertise in monitoring and country analysis with geopolitical exposure modelling to stress risks across more than 160 countries.

The service monitors geopolitical developments from a risk management perspective, providing answers to questions such as:

  • What are the most important geopolitical developments relevant to your organisation?
  • How might a geopolitical scenario impact the organisation financially?
  • Where should the organisation’s geopolitical risk management focus?


We map your organisation’s exposure to geopolitical risk via:

  • Portfolio Vulnerability Mapping
    Assessing your portfolio’s geographic, industry and peril exposure.
  • Realistic Disaster Scenarios
    Expert-generated geopolitical disaster scenarios, on regions/countries and topics selected in consultation with you.
  • Risk Ratings
    Conversion of scenarios into Risk Ratings, which, combined with client portfolio exposure, are inputted into VAPOR.
  • Stress Testing
    Estimates and analysis of insured losses, using the VAPOR algorithm, which considers frequency of defaults.

These services are bespoke to your organisation.

Case studies

Exposure Modelling for a Political Risk Insurance Portfolio

A leading insurance company used our Exposure Modelling services to identify and stress test its political risk insurance portfolio, which helped inform its pricing and capital allocation strategy.

Opportunities and Risks in Sub-Saharan Africa

As part of its five-year investment planning, a major UK-based private equity firm used customised country scores generated by our Exposure Modelling to compare opportunities and risks between countries. This in turn helped to inform its regional investment strategy.

The World Next Week: our free geopolitical highlights email