Lebanese anti-government protest, Beirut, Lebanon - 17 Oct 2021 Photo: WAEL HAMZEH/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
We began warning of Lebanon’s economic vulnerability and the rising risks to the banking sector as early as 2017, highlighting the unsustainability of the debt-based fiscal model in October 2018. Exactly one year later, popular protests launched the spiralling economic crisis that has left the country at rock-bottom, as we forecast each development in turn.
The sophistication of Beirut’s banking sector meant the crisis had massive global and regional implications. As dollars were trapped in the system, financial managers across the world have been affected. Many multinationals have also located operations in the country as a relatively safe and stable option in the volatile Middle East – a decision that we help them to continue to review, as we highlight potential future scenarios of political and sectarian instability.
The Oxford Analytica Daily Brief delivers timely, impartial and actionable analysis of emerging trends and developments. Publishing every business day, we analyse the most important topics in all areas of the the global political economy. On Lebanon alone, our clients received 47 in-depth analysis and 192 quick response updates between Jan 2017 and mid-November 2021.
Through daily dissection and analysis of developments in global politics, macroeconomics and the political economy, the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief offers qualitative predictions of the impact of events ‘just over the horizon’.
We inform our clients’ policy-making and decision-making processes by providing strategic insight into the immediate and longer-term implications of political, economic and regulatory developments around the world.
Our rigorous methodologies mean we have an excellent track record in predicting the course of key macroeconomic and geopolitical trends, and providing to clients the insight they need to prepare for contingencies.
The Weekly Brief: our free geopolitical highlights email