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  6. Indonesian leader’s reform push falters

Forecasting track record: Indonesian leader’s reform push falters 


May 31, 2022

Graphic showing predictions we made in October 2019 and how the issue developed in November 2021

When President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo pledged reforms to attract greater investment at the October 2019 inauguration ceremony for his second and final term, we predicted that his plans would encounter serious difficulties.

A law on job creation passed in October 2020 is a key component of the reforms. In November 2021, the Constitutional Court ruled that the law would be rendered “permanently unconstitutional” unless the government revised it within two years.

Why do you need to know about the fate of Jokowi’s reform?

It is clear that Indonesia will punch below its weight economically unless it improves the business environment. The job creation law, which extends from land procurement to labour regulation, is designed to remove obstacles to investment, but critics say it undermines environmental protections and workers’ rights. As we predicted, the rush to pass the legislation prevented adequate scrutiny of its weaknesses. How the government handles the revision process will be a key test of its ability to balance competing interests as well as its capacity to implement sweeping reforms that favour investors.

How do we help our clients?

The Oxford Analytica Daily Brief delivers timely, impartial and actionable analysis of emerging trends and developments. Publishing every business day, we analyse the most important topics in all areas of the global political economy. On Indonesia alone, our clients received 66 in-depth analysis and 201 quick response updates between January 2019 and May 2022.

 Graphic with a timeline of Daily Brief analysis as the issue developed

Mitigate risk and seize opportunities with the Daily Brief

Through daily dissection and analysis of developments in global politics, macroeconomics and the political economy, the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief offers qualitative predictions of the impact of events ‘just over the horizon’.

We inform our clients’ policy-making and decision-making processes by providing strategic insight into the immediate and longer-term implications of political, economic and regulatory developments around the world.

Our rigorous methodologies mean we have an excellent track record in predicting the course of key macroeconomic and geopolitical trends, and providing to clients the insight they need to prepare for contingencies.

 President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo at his inauguration in 2019

President Joko ‘Jokowi’ Widodo speaks at his inauguration in 2019 (Photo:Dita Alangkara/AP/Shutterstock)

 

Members of labour unions hold a demonstration demanding the revocation of the job creation law (Photo:Denny Pohan/ZUMA Press Wire/Shutterstock)

Dr Joydeep Sen
Dr Joydeep Sen

Senior Analyst, Asia Pacific

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