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  5. Guaido versus Maduro in Venezuela

Forecasting track record: Guaido versus Maduro in Venezuela


April 27, 2022

Graphic showing our predictions about US relations with Venezuela

International promotion of Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s rightful president has failed to achieve its intended aim.

Opposition groups designated Guaido as ‘interim president’ in January 2019 following the re-election of President Nicolas Maduro in discredited polls. The United States and other countries subsequently recognised Guaido as interim president and handed over control of some Venezuelan state assets to his team. More than three years on, international recognition of Guaido and increasing sanctions on Venezuela have not led to Maduro’s removal. Instead, Guaido looks increasingly marginalised.

Why do you need to know about the evolution of policy on Venezuela?

President Joe Biden’s administration has distanced itself from a regime change strategy and is tentatively engaging with Maduro. Extricating this administration from its predecessor’s approach is a challenge, but the US geopolitical interests are shifting rapidly and encouraging a rethink on access to Venezuelan oil. The diplomatic footwork involved will be complicated, and a revival in oil imports from Venezuela may well not happen before the 2024 US presidential election.

How do we help our clients?

The Oxford Analytica Daily Brief delivers timely, impartial and actionable analysis of emerging trends and developments. Publishing every business day, we analyse the most important topics in all areas of the global political economy. On Venezuela alone, our clients received 47 in-depth analysis and 218 quick response updates between Jan 2019 and April 2022.

 Infographic charting our assessment of Venezuela's Guaido since 2019

Mitigate risk and seize opportunities with the Daily Brief

Through daily dissection and analysis of developments in global politics, macroeconomics and the political economy, the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief offers qualitative predictions of the impact of events ‘just over the horizon’.

We inform our clients’ policy-making and decision-making processes by providing strategic insight into the immediate and longer-term implications of political, economic and regulatory developments around the world.

Our rigorous methodologies mean we have an excellent track record in predicting the course of key macroeconomic and geopolitical trends, and providing to clients the insight they need to prepare for contingencies.

 President of Venezuelan National Assembly Juan Guaido in 2019

Juan Guaido talks to the people during a rally in Caracas, Venezuela in 2019 (Photo:Shutterstock/Alfonzo)

Dr Jill Hedges, Senior Analyst, Latin AmericaDr Jill Hedges
Deputy Director of Analysis

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