The Global Economy: Top of the Cycle?

Concerns over trade, monetary policy and geopolitical risk threaten continuing global growth


Tuesday, July 24, 15:00 UK / 10:00 EDT

Global growth is approaching 4% this year, its most robust in eight years. The recovery gives countries an opportunity to implement reforms to improve infrastructure and welfare policies in response to fears about sluggish productivity and wage growth and the impact of automation.

Few countries are finding the budgets and political will to do so. Time may be running out even on those that have.

Geopolitical risks have helped commodity prices recover, assisting some countries but at the expense of others. Global monetary conditions are tightening. Rising tensions reduce the trajectory of world trade as US and retaliatory tariffs take effect, and there is a risk that disputes could escalate into trade war, eroding the authority of the WTO.

  • Is the global economy approaching the peak of its current cycle?
  • Will policy and trade trends, and geopolitical risks continue to diverge across the world?
  • Will the dollar continue strengthening, bolstered by rising interest rate differentials, or could rising policy risks reverse it, relieving indebted emerging markets?
  • Will policy be able to address the unpredictability of disruptive technology on jobs and wages?
  • Will rising unemployment cause the anti-globalisation backlash to have an impact on some emerging economies?
  • Are investors altogether too sanguine about the risks?



Join Oxford Analytica’s experts and share your thoughts on the above and raise anything else that concerns or excites you about the Global Economy in our client conference call on Tuesday, 24 July, 15:00 UK, 10.00 EDT.