The global economy: Mid-year update

The lull before the squall?


Tuesday, July 11 15:00 UK / 10:00 EDT

Global politics are uncertain and volatile. Financial markets, by contrast, seem remarkably tranquil. Deceptively so?

Over the past year global economic growth has steadily recovered. Meanwhile, world trade is picking up and commodity prices have stabilized. Unemployment rates have fallen towards pre-2008 financial crisis levels and inflation rates have edged closer to central bank targets.

But while near-term prospects are promising, there are risks in the medium term. Beyond the political ones, there is a possible rise in inflation; debt weighs increasingly on consumption and investment and, in places, is intensifying the stress on the financial system; and, perhaps most serious of all, a rise in protectionism.

In the background continues to lurk low productivity growth, unusually limited room for policy manoeuvre and the ever-present shadow of disruptive technological change.

How should policymakers, markets and investors position themselves in this environment? Can national governments buffeted by strong political forces rebalance policy towards structural reforms, redeploy fiscal policy to relieve overburdend monetary policy and take a multilateral approach to areas of common challenges like protectionism and regulation?

Or will the newly emerging forces of economic nationalism and political populism become more permanent features of markets and economies.

Join us on Tuesday, July 11 to take the temperature of the global economy and to put your questions on its outlook to three of Oxford Analytica’s expert advisors.