Recession or Depression?

The economic consequences of the pandemic

An Oxford Analytica Conference Call

April 22, 2020, 15.00 UK / 10:00 EDT

Around one-third of the world’s population is under lockdown as governments attempt to slow the spread of COVID-19, reducing consumption, investment and trade. Many businesses have seen their revenue disappear. A global recession is inevitable.

While some investment will just be delayed, much of the discretionary consumption that would have occurred will never be spent. Despite the stimulus schemes, job losses globally will rise to hundreds of millions.

On top of what may be the largest demand shock in more than 100 years, supply shortages and production closures are rising. The more firms or factories that close, the longer the recovery. The third, highly contagious shock, is to finance. Financing costs and the rising risk of a credit crunch will exacerbate the other shocks.

Our panel will analyse the damage to date and consider the following questions:

  • How will the main regional engines of global growth respond to this unprecedented disruption in economic activity?
  • To what extent can policymakers mitigate the damage, and hasten a recovery, through monetary and fiscal measures?
  • The surge in public borrowing places more countries at risk of default, and will require a gradual return to budget balancing; which nations are most vulnerable?
  • How well-grounded are the fears that states will become more protectionist in the wake of this crisis, given the demonstrated vulnerability of international supply chains?
  • Which sectors will struggle most to return to business as usual when the lockdown finally ends?

 

Panellists

Dr Linda Yueh Fellow in Economics, St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford; Adjunct Professor of Economics, London Business School; Visiting Professor, IDEAS, London School of Economics and Political Science

Dr Bart van Ark Chief Economist, Conference Board, Professor of Economics, University of Groningen

Dr Erik Jones Professor of European Studies and International Political Economy, Johns Hopkins, SAIS

Join Oxford Analytica’s experts for this discussion and share your questions and perspectives in our client conference call on Wednesday April 22, 15:00 UK, 10.00 EDT.