Argentina: Down the same road?
With general elections due next month, the country looks close to another default.
An Oxford Analytica Conference Call
Tuesday, September 17, 15:00 UK / 10:00 EDT
Since the opposition ticket of Alberto Fernandez and Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner defeated the ticket of incumbent President Mauricio Macri by over 15 percentage points and nearly 4 million votes in the simultaneous open party primaries on August 11, the pre-existing economic malaise has deteriorated rapidly amid the virtual certainty that Macri will not be re-elected in October. As the exchange rate and bond prices plummeted, by the beginning of September the government had announced new currency controls aimed at preserving international reserves and -- even more ominously -- plans to ‘reprofile’ debt that have been widely interpreted as the prelude to another sovereign default, the ninth in Argentina’s history.
With country risk rising along with doubts over the next disbursement of the IMF’s whopping 57-billion-dollar stand-by agreement, concern has shifted away from the outcome of the October 27 elections to worries over how (and if) Macri can sustain a deteriorating political and economic situation long enough to hand over to his successor on December 10. Increasingly accepted as a lame duck, Macri may lack the means to avert a return to the last days of 2001, marked by the president’s early departure and a messy default.
We will look at these and other issues in our September 17 conference call, including questions such as:
- Is there any prospect of Macri reversing the primary result on October 27, and what would it mean for stability if he did?
- What will be the IMF’s approach to an almost certain renegotiation of the stand-by agreement?
- How would a new default play out domestically and internationally?
- What can the next government do to stabilise the situation?
- What strategy is the opposition likely to adopt in the weeks prior to the October elections, and what would be the implications for political/economic stability in the short term?
Join us on September 17 to put your questions to three of our experts:
- Laurence Whitehead - Nuffield College Oxford;
- Ezequiel Gonzalez Ocantos - Nuffield College Oxford; and
- Jill Hedges - Oxford Analytica