COVID-19 Scenario Planning

COVID-19 is having dramatic impacts on organisations worldwide, but the precise nature and scale are difficult to predict. The short-term health impacts are already substantial and are rising fast. The long-term economic, social, political and security ramifications are not yet fully understood.

Given the range of possible outcomes and degree of uncertainty about which will occur, our recommended approach is scenario planning.

Our scenario analysis will help you evaluate the possible financial, operational and strategic impacts on your organisation, and in turn to plan accordingly.

Our offering

In the context of your organisation's needs and concerns, we can construct country-level, regional or global scenarios based on the following and other questions:

First order impacts: health

  • How fast is the virus likely to spread?
  • How prepared is the health system?
  • What measures are national and local governments putting in place?
  • How well is social distancing likely to work?
  • What proportion of the population has underlying conditions such as diabetes?

Second order impacts: the economy and society

  • How resilient is the economy in terms of services versus manufacturing, trade dependence, domestic agricultural
    production, and security of supply chains?
  • How deeply will the crisis affect poverty and inequality?
  • How much fiscal room for manoeuvre does the government have?
  • How long can people survive being ‘locked down’?

Third order impacts: politics and security

  • What will be the domestic political consequences of governments handling the crisis well or badly?
  • Which political parties or other groups will be strengthened?
  • How high is trust in government?
  • How strong is governance?
  • What is the threshold for institutional breakdown and chaos?


Our scenario analysis is primarily qualitative; it provides a structured framework to consider multiple possible outcomes and how these might be realised. It is bespoke, and oriented towards capturing the topic areas that matter most to your organisation.

We leverage the multidisciplinary insights of our network of experts, which includes leading experts on the pandemic, on public health and on specific countries or regions.

Deliverables, timing and pricing

Single-country scenarios start at 25,000 USD for a 30-page assessment with an associated one-hour, online, interactive briefing with our country/sector and health experts.

Delivery at this level is typically 4-6 weeks for the report with the briefing at any mutually agreed time. Expedited services are available. 

Our track record

We have almost fifty years of track record at delivering for our clients analysis of what major and minor global, regional and country-level events and trends mean for them.

Our clients include household names in every sector and most of the G20 governments and major international agencies.