Mark Elsner Director of Advisory
Client: UAE government agency
A UAE federal government agency was concerned with the impact and uncertainties brought about by the Brexit referendum in 2016, which set off the UK’s withdrawal process from the EU. The client was interested in the scenarios and effects of Brexit developments on economic, political, social and foreign policy issues in the UK, EU and internationally.
Our objective was to support the understanding of Brexit developments and possible outcomes through the delivery of regular monthly reports. These monitoring reports were aimed at helping policymakers navigate Brexit’s political, economic and business volatility in the short term and develop longer-term strategies to prosper in a post-Brexit world. For this, we built a comprehensive model to track and analyse qualitative and quantitative data related to the process of the UK’s exit from the EU.
Scenario planning and stakeholder analysis: This phase produced a baseline assessment of six core outcomes / scenarios for Britain’s exit from the EU. The scenarios evaluated the key parameters and underlying factors that influenced each Brexit outcome. We attached probability percentages to the outlined scenarios and illustrated the likelihood of each scenario materialising. The framework also included a trend analysis that provides an overall assessment of the direction of a given scenario.
Scenario planning: This phase provided the client with a forward-looking deep-dive analysis related to Brexit. The implication analysis explored the effects of the Brexit process on areas of strategic importance to the client. In addition to the six core scenarios, we also assessed the likelihood of transition deal, second referendum, government collapse, and no deal options.
Spotlight Custom Monitoring: this phase was designed to enable the client to regularly assess the key signposts, working assumptions and potential vulnerabilities to the uncertainties related to the UK’s exit from the EU.
Our reports provided an overview of key Brexit-related developments that have the potential to influence the political, economic, financial and business environment in the UK and Europe over the reporting period. This was further enhanced by an in-depth analysis that expands on some of the most significant issues related to the Brexit process. The thematic scope of the assessments took into account the sectoral and geographic interests of the client. The reports included a data appendix that tracked and updated a large number of macroeconomic and financial indicators.
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