Agribusiness: country trends

Client: Agribusiness company

Concern

A complex and volatile operational environment

The client is one of the leading exporters of ingredients used in fertilisers, and fertilisers themselves. It has developed an expansion strategy in Sub-Saharan Africa to strengthen its offering of fertilizers, adapted to each country’s soil characteristics.

Objective

Oxford Analytica was tasked with identifying, assessing and anticipating country-level trends that shape the production, demand and distribution of fertiliser products in eleven African countries. Sectors of key interest relate to fertiliser demand (agriculture, agribusiness, food security); fertiliser production (availability of gas resources) and distribution (infrastructure). This was to help inform the client’s expansion in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Outcome

Phase I (Measure)

Core Risk Assessment: To achieve the stated objective, Oxford Analytica applied its macro diligence framework to assess diverse factors that could pose risks or offer opportunities with respect to the business environment in the eleven countries. This phase required members of Oxford Analytica staff, working with our expert network in each country, to produce baseline analysis of the drivers of risk and opportunity in each country under six issue areas: political, economic, social, regulatory, operational and security.

Phase II (Measure, Map, Monitor)

Scenario Planning & Stakeholder Analysis: A deep-dive report provided in-depth and forward-looking analysis of key trends and issues, outlining the significant macro risks within the next 18 months for the countries of concern. It also included a power map that identified the key actors closest to the issue considered, their interests and spheres of influence. The stakeholder mapping included a graphical representation of the relationship between relevant influencers in government and business, along with analysis explaining the graphic in detail.

Phase III (Monitor)

Spotlight Custom Monitoring: This phase enabled the client to regularly assess key signposts, working assumptions, and potential vulnerabilities in the countries covered. For each country, on a monthly basis Oxford Analytica identified developments that may signal a shift in current conditions. The developments were selected based on:

  • Importance in the macro business environment.
  • Relevance to sectoral interests.
  • Ability to signal risks and/or opportunities.

The analysis provided an overview of key developments in each country and the political dynamics that shape them. The analysis was structured as follows for each development:

  1. A summary of location and stakeholders 
  2. Key decision makers and their interests
  3. Outlook