The US midterm elections will take place in a mixed economic context. The economy entered a recession in the second quarter of 2022 and inflation rose above 9% in the middle of the year. However, the labour market has stayed firm, with wages rising and the unemployment rate reaching a historically low rate of 3.5%.

Uncertainty means President Joe Biden’s Democratic Party faces an uphill battle to protect its narrow majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives. The governing party tends to lose ground in midterm elections, and Biden’s difficulties in passing much of his legislative agenda since coming to office — partly because of intra-party divisions — plus rampant inflation, do not augur well for Democrat hopes of beating the trend.

The election outcomes, with the possibilities of new majorities in the House and Senate, will have important repercussions for policymaking and economic management in 2023.

Fill out the form to download our latest white paper, where we discuss: 

• Three topics are front and centre of the debate ahead of the midterms: inflation, the labour market and recession
• Voting intention
• Likely outcomes and scenarios 
• The worrying outlook for 2023