The Mexican election: Third time lucky for AMLO?

After twelve years of campaigning, the controversial populist looks set finally to clinch the presidency, but what might his election mean for Mexico?

Tuesday, June 19, 15:00 UK / 10:00 EDT

Mexico’s ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) is on course for a crushing defeat and President Enrique Pena Nieto looks set to leave office as one of the most unpopular leaders the country has had. Corruption allegations, soaring violence, controversial reforms and a breakdown of relations with the United States have marked his presidency, feeding the rhetoric of populist challenger Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) and his National Regeneration Movement (MORENA). Barring a shock result on polling day, AMLO will take the presidency, raising major questions over Mexico’s future, not least whether he will live up to the worst fears of his critics and the hopes of the most radical elements within his party, or whether pragmatism will win out.

  • Is there any chance that a challenger may still defeat AMLO?
  • What are the prospects for Pena Nieto’s liberalising reforms under an AMLO government?
  • How business friendly or hostile is an AMLO government likely to be?
  • What are the likely drivers of insecurity and how might a radical shift in security policies affect violence levels?
  • What are the prospects for the future of NAFTA and of broader US-Mexico relations?