The Global Economy: Deeper or longer slowdown -- or both?

Sharply weaker trade and investment is outweighing looser policy, raising the risk of a shaper global growth slowdown.

Tuesday, October 22, 15:00 UK / 10:00 EDT

The world economy is likely to grow by 2.5-3% this year, sharply below the 3.0-3.5% range expected nine months ago, which was already the weakest since 2009.

The United States, the euro-area, Japan, India and some other emerging markets are loosening monetary policy. China is expanding fiscal policy and others may follow, perhaps Germany and the United States. However, fears are rising about the scope for monetary policy to respond to financial instability, and whether fiscal policy can meet structural reform needs. 

Slowing Chinese and US growth, and reduced expectations for any recovery of German or Indian growth are leading the forecast downgrades and while prolonged weakness remains more likely than outright global recession, the risk of the latter is increasing.

  • The global economy is slowing, but how long will the slowdown last and will it intensify?
  • A US-China goods trade deal or a Brexit deal may spark short market rallies but will not curb the global rise of non-tariff barriers.
  • Are investors overestimating the ability of the US Fed and the ECB to stabilise global activity and are they missing rising financial risks in certain sectors?
  • If policymakers prioritise short-term policies over structural reforms, will this be enough to address the impact of disruptive technology on jobs and wages?

Terry O'Shaughnessy, Lecturer in Economics, University of Oxford

Elizabeth Rust, Economist, Keybridge Research

Join Oxford Analytica’s experts and share your thoughts on the above and raise anything else that concerns or excites you about the Global Economy in our client conference call on Tuesday, 22 October, 15:00 UK, 10.00 EDT.