Deep Dive Webinar - April
Will China drive the global recovery?
April 21, 2021 | 3:00pm - 4:00pm UK (10:00am - 11:00am EDT)
China was the only major economy to grow in 2020 and is expected to beat comfortably its 2021 official targets: 6% GDP growth and the creation of 11 million new urban jobs. Base effects will help, but largely this is due to the momentum of its V-shaped recovery.
Industry, especially export-orientated manufacturing, has recovered faster than consumption. Yet as consumer and business confidence improves, private spending should pick up. Travel will increase as more people are vaccinated. As the recovery gathers momentum, fiscal and monetary policy will be gradually tightened.
But the risks are numerous: high debt burden, property market imbalances, trade and investment conflicts with the United States, government involvement in the tech sector, an ageing population, climate-action plans and the aspiration to establish a dual-circulation economy. How easy will it be for China to sustain this recovery? Will the Chinese economy be an engine for global growth, or will it stall out?
By attending this webinar, you will be able to answer these questions:
- How sustainable is China’s growth trajectory, how seriously should ‘hard landing’ fears be taken, which risks are most worrying, and should upside risks be receiving more attention?
- How will the dual circulation policy, the barriers to US-China trade and investment, and China’s role as the largest lender to developing countries affect China’s external policies?
- Globally, what are the key risks and opportunities for the global economy this year, and which will be most important to China’s growth, and global role?
A discussion between:
- Andy Rothman, Investment strategist, Matthews Asia
- Yukon Huang, Senior Fellow, CEIP, Senior Fellow, Asia Programme
- Linda Yueh, Fellow in Economics, St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford; Adjunct Professor of Economics, London Business School; Visiting Professor, IDEAS, London School of Economics and Political Science
Chair: Nick Redman, Director of Analysis, Oxford Analytica
Registering for this webinar
Who should attend?
This deep dive is a closed webinar only for Oxford Analytica clients. It will benefit those who are in foreign and defence ministries, intelligence agencies, as well as senior executives and those involved in government affairs, legal services and finance, public policy. Not a client? Find out more about the service and how we can help you navigate complex markets.
Each session is supported by a background briefing curated by our team of expert analysts who produce our flagship publication, the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief. These in-depth briefings are circulated to attendees in advance of each call and are available as written articles published in the Daily Brief.