VAPOR Country Risk Ratings

February 5, 2021: The latest edition of our VAPOR Ratings report has been published today.

The report, driven by our unique Value at Political Risk system developed in partnership with Willis Towers Watson, reviews the latest ratings changes and provides accompanying insights from our analytical team.


Your quarterly guide to measuring and mapping political risk
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In this quarter’s edition, we assess how US-China tensions and the rise of economic nationalism will be navigated by Europe. Given similar political values, Europe will inevitably join ‘the West’ versus China on issues such as the promotion of democracy and human rights. However, we also expect it to stand apart by promoting its version of multilateralism and engagement in the Indo-Pacific, while at the same time using these initiatives to contain China’s behaviour and ambitions in the region.

About the VAPOR Ratings

Driven by the Value at Political Risk system created in partnership with Willis Towers Watson, VAPOR Ratings offer investors and executives a unique rating based on a 12-month rolling political risk outlook for more than 160 countries.

The ratings anticipate unexpected market and country exposure as well as unpicking headline risk to highlight opportunities for well-prepared organisations. The model assesses 14 industries and five distinct political perils - political violence, expropriation, sovereign default, trade embargoes and capital controls.

Unlike generic political risk scores, each VAPOR Rating reflects a minimum and maximum expected loss due specifically to political risk factors. The VAPOR Ratings are a public-domain adaptation of the Value at Political Risk system which draws on Oxford Analytica’s proven track record of geopolitical analysis and Willis Towers Watson’s experience in modelling risk.