The Gulf push for a US-Iran nuclear deal may well fail

Iranian nuclear discussions have reached a crucial point, as several crises converge

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman today said a US draft nuclear deal proposal was “not acceptable” and that Tehran would shortly proffer a “balanced” counter-proposal via Oman. Gulf countries are urgently seeking to further US-Iranian nuclear talks, despite negative signals from today’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors meeting. Oman has so far mediated five rounds of indirect talks between US and Iranian officials.

These linked developments show that the Iran nuclear issue is at a vital tipping-point, where either the contours of an interim agreement may begin to take shape or dialogue could collapse and an escalatory dynamic gain momentum. The Gulf countries, which have much to lose from any eruption of US-Iranian hostilities, will maintain their pressure for the former.

Gulf role

This regional context in favour of de-escalation constitutes a significant difference from previous nuclear negotiations in 2015. Although GCC states are still concerned by Tehran’s network of proxy groups across the region and its missile and drone capabilities, they view the risk of being caught in the midst of a conflict over Iran’s nuclear programme as the more immediate challenge, since it would jeopardise major regional economic, energy and development initiatives.

A March 16 visit to Oman by Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, set in motion the outreach to the White House that allowed the first indirect talks between the Washington and Tehran since 2023, beginning on April 12. Muscat has taken an unusually hands-on role, acting as an active mediator, shuttling and crafting suggestions, rather than its traditional stance as a logistical facilitator.

Even as rhetorical positions harden in Tehran and Washington, officials from Oman and other Gulf states have sought to identify areas of common ground on enrichment, discussing regional frameworks and aiming to craft an interim form of words that both parties can accept.

On April 17, Saudi Minister of Defence Khalid bin Salman paid a landmark visit to Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, reportedly urging negotiations with Washington to avert the risk of a new conflict. Trump’s mid-May visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates left Gulf leaders optimistic that his White House was open to creative, outside-the-box approaches that could overcome traditional constraints on US policymaking choices.

Causes for optimism

This optimism has several drivers:

First, Gulf officials believe that Trump wants a deal with Iran to showcase a foreign policy success and to claim that he has achieved a better agreement than that negotiated by former US President Barack Obama’s administration in 2015.

Second, they hope that the trillion-dollar investments into the United States announced during the president’s visit — even if they fall short of the headline figures and stretch into the longer term — will give him a personal stake in keeping the region stable and conflict-free (see GULF STATES: Deeper US ties will shape regional policy – May 19, 2025).

Third, they see Trump as more willing than the conventional politicians who preceded him as president, including Joe Biden, to push back against hawkish advocates of military strikes on Iran (see UNITED STATES: State Department’s remit will shrink – May 13, 2025).

The removal of neoconservative hawks in the National Security Council, including its head, Michael Waltz, together with Trump’s unveiling of the Iran talks during an Oval Office meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, underscored regional views of a new US approach. So too did the May 6 agreement with Yemen’s Huthis, also mediated by Oman, and Trump’s lifting of sanctions on Syria after his Gulf visit.

Outlook

Iran looks set to push back against the US nuclear deal proposal, perhaps by using its claimed trove of Israeli documents to leverage demands for a nuclear weapons-free Middle East. Rejection could anger Trump, whose press secretary described the draft as “detailed”, “acceptable” and in Tehran’s “best interest”. That risks generating a cycle of rhetorical statements and reactions that make it harder to reach and ‘sell’ an agreement.

At the same time, US and European IAEA board members are moving to refer Iran to the UN Security Council over non-compliance with its safeguards obligations under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Although Russia and China are not in support, today’s meeting could still create momentum for the United Kingdom, France and Germany to begin the process to ‘snap back’ UN sanctions on Iran — which must happen by end-August, if at all, and which requires no wider agreement. Tehran has threatened a strong response to any such move, including potential withdrawal from the NPT.

Gulf officials will remain focused on a breakthrough in US-Iranian talks to resolve all these problems, but time is running out. Each smaller crisis-point could contribute to a new escalatory dynamic, undermining negotiations.

If talks fall apart and the prospect of a winning deal is off the table, Israel’s ongoing pressure for military action against Iran’s nuclear sites — with US collaboration or at least permission — could gain more sympathy from Trump, who has so far repeatedly forbidden such strikes. Any such military conflict would present the GCC countries with huge strategic risks, political dilemmas and economic costs.