Mutual restraint is preventing outright violence, but an arms race and aggressive posturing keep tensions high
Tensions between Morocco and Algeria show no sign of respite, although both sides have sought to avert war. Morocco is wary of Algeria’s military capabilities, while Algeria views Morocco’s ties with France, the United States and Israel with caution. Meanwhile, the neighbours are reaching out to governments in the Sahel and Europe by offering investment, security partnerships and closer diplomatic ties, to score points at each other’s expense.
What next
Subsidiary Impacts
- A Morocco-Algeria war would drive new waves of migration to Europe and disrupt trade in the Mediterranean Sea.
- The Gulf states, the EU and the AU could step in to de-escalate tensions between the countries if the risk of war becomes high.
- Algerian defence ties with the United States will grow, even as Algiers maintains close links with Moscow.
Analysis
After a string of diplomatic incidents, Algeria suspended all relations with Morocco in August 2021, accusing it of threatening Algerian national security through its partnership with Israel, among other things. Algiers has since rejected all mediation attempts, characterising the kingdom as hostile and demanding that it make amends (see ALGERIA/MOROCCO: Tensions could rise further – November 4, 2021).
Western Sahara
Morocco and Algeria could come close to accidental escalation in Western Sahara, following the collapse of the ceasefire in November 2020 (see WESTERN SAHARA: Conflict will boost regional tensions – December 5, 2023). Algeria backs the pro-independence Polisario Front against Morocco, which controls 80% of the disputed territory.
In November 2021 and October 2023, security incidents involving civilian casualties from Algeria and Morocco, respectively, risked triggering military responses that could have spiralled out of control.
In 2022, the UN monitoring mission in Western Sahara (MINURSO) threatened to withdraw from the buffer zone between Algeria, where the Front is based, and the territory Morocco controls. This foreshadowed the possibility of Moroccan troops taking over the zone and chasing enemy units inside Algerian territory. The crisis was averted after the Front allowed the resupply of MINURSO monitoring sites inside the zone, reversing its earlier decision to block these operations.
Restrainers
Calm between the two countries rests largely on their leaderships exercising restraint, which stems mostly from fear of the unknown: neither side is sure to win a war that could destroy their nationalist credentials and legitimacy and fuel domestic instability.
Military imbalance
Algeria’s armed forces are twice as large as Morocco’s and possess more tanks, planes and ships (see ALGERIA/MOROCCO: Rivalry drives defence sector focus – November 5, 2024 and see ALGERIA/MOROCCO: Defence spending will be a priority – November 6, 2023). Morocco has about 200,000 active military personnel, compared with around 520,000 in Algeria, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Algeria’s military budget is also larger than Morocco’s. In 2023, Algeria’s military expenditure reached USD18.3bn to Morocco’s USD5.2bn.
Algeria spends more on the military
However, Morocco has two advantages: regular purchases of US weapons and equipment, and cooperation with Israel. This suggests that it could be technologically upgrading its army at a faster pace than Algeria, including in terms of electronic warfare and drones, as well as air defences (seesee MOROCCO: Rabat reaps the benefit of US-Israeli ties – February 21, 2025 and see MOROCCO: Defence capabilities will grow – May 4, 2023 ).
In the event of war, Morocco could secure emergency support from the United States, Israel and France, while Algeria remains reliant on Russia.
Economics and diplomatic standing
Both Algeria and Morocco are courting European partners and foreign investors. This requires each to project a reassuring image that a war would shatter.
Morocco is also working to normalise its control of Western Sahara.
Meanwhile, Algeria is trying to recover from years of domestic turmoil and re-establish itself as a dependable energy supplier and regional power (see ALGERIA: Algiers seeks boost in regional role – November 6, 2024).
US role
The Biden administration in the United States was another restraining factor (see NORTH AFRICA: The United States will balance ties – December 27, 2023). US diplomats regularly stepped in to prevent security incidents in Western Sahara from escalating further. The administration also deliberately intensified its diplomatic engagement with both countries to dispel any perception of favouritism or isolation.
Trump wild card
Both countries anticipate that US President Donald Trump could alter this precarious balance and raise the risk of war.
In the aftermath of his election victory, Morocco accused Algeria of preparing for war, while Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune appointed Chief of Staff Said Chengriha as defence minister, further strengthening the security forces’ grip over decision-making in Algiers. Chengriha reportedly still bears ill-will toward Morocco, having been a prisoner of war in the country for six months after the 1976 Battle of Amgala.
Algeria and Morocco are vying for US support
Morocco hopes that Washington will support its position on Western Sahara. In 2020, during his first term, Trump recognised Rabat’s sovereignty over the territory. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also taken public positions in support of Morocco and against Algeria, due to the latter’s military cooperation with Russia.
Algeria is also trying to court the new US administration by signalling its willingness to cooperate on security matters. In January, its defence ministry signed an unprecedented memorandum of understanding with US Africa Command. In February, Tebboune praised Trump in a media interview and highlighted his country’s reluctance to supply weapons to the Front as a sign of Algeria’s commitment to regional security.
What stance the Trump administration will take on the crisis remains unclear. It is possible that the president will not be directly involved in dealing with the situation.
There are two scenarios regarding future US policy toward North Africa:
- Washington could simply disengage from the area, which is of limited relevance to its interests, as Trump did during most of his previous term; or
- it could openly back Morocco, as the December 2020 declaration and Rubio’s past statements might seem to indicate.
Either scenario would remove a key block to accidental escalation in the region, with the Trump administration reluctant to intervene to reduce tensions as its predecessor did.
Outlook
The possibility of direct conflict remains modest, but there are a few factors that could raise this risk in the coming years.
Both countries remain determined to increase military spending, and their rhetoric is becoming increasingly aggressive, fuelled by disinformation on social media.
Meanwhile, the Front is less inclined to restrain itself, with its internal opposition openly calling for escalation against Morocco (see WESTERN SAHARA: Rabat’s wins will harden drive – September 25, 2024). There are those within the movement that see no results from the current stance, which the Front defines as an “attrition war” with Morocco. They fear that independence is becoming an increasingly slim prospect, and this places pressure on the leadership to escalate.
An escalation could manifest in multiple ways, such as bombing campaigns inside Western Sahara and more rocket attacks on cities. Algeria would have to weigh carefully how to avoid a full-blown war.
