Oxford Analytica Prospects 2026: Crises, Conflicts and Aftermaths

Much of 2025 was marked by an intensification of wars and conflict risks. In some cases, including in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, ceasefires have now been put into place through US-led or regional mediation — albeit in ways that have left details about a process towards permanent peace vague. Elsewhere, as in Sudan, Eritrea and Ethiopia , between Afghanistan and Pakistan, regarding the US and Venezuela, mediation towards de-escalation has either been absent, failed or yet to show lasting results. Competition between the US and China continues to provide a persistent undercurrent of tension in the Asia-Pacific region.

Drawing on the Oxford Analytica Daily Brief series of Prospects pieces looking ahead to 2026, this webinar will examine how a series of crises and conflicts are likely to evolve next year:  

• Can the increasingly desperate conflict situation in Sudan be reversed, and the apparent drift of Ethiopia and Ethiopia closer to war be arrested?  
• Will US policy towards Venezuela move from pressuring the Maduro government towards an explicit regime change objective involving military means?
• Will the ceasefire between Thailand and Cambodia stick, and will the Afghan Taliban and Pakistan avoid large-scale hostilities?
• Can the ceasefire in Gaza be converted into a longer-term settlement, and what are the risks of a resumption of conflict between Iran and Israel? 
• Despite the recent agreement of a one-year trade truce, what are the prospects that geopolitical competition between the US and China will lead to a collision in their economic and security relationships?