The World next Year

EU needs to deliver

After years trying to reform its founding treaties and institutional structure, the EU must now start focusing on delivery. Some of the most pressing international issues include relations with Russia, Iran and Turkey, and the status of Kosovo.

The EU has struggled to develop a clear or coherent strategy for its dealings with Moscow, partly because of continued differences between member states over the nature of such a strategy. Moscow has also proved a difficult negotiating partner, adept at exploiting divisions between the member states.

The 'EU3' -- France, Germany and the United Kingdom -- have been engaged in negotiations with Tehran over Iran's nuclear ambitions since 2003. Discussions have focused on Iran's insistence on its right to enrich uranium as part of a civilian nuclear energy programme, but they have met with only limited success. In 2008, the EU faces the task of deciding whether to impose stricter sanctions.

Accession negotiations will continue with Turkey. They will be contentious and difficult. Specific problematic issues include Article 301 of the Turkish Penal Code, under which people can be prosecuted for insulting 'Turkishness'. Moreover, several member states --- notably France and Austria, but also increasingly Germany under Chancellor Angela Merkel -- have expressed their opposition to Turkish membership.

Another key priority for the Slovene presidency of the EU, which runs for six months from January, is the settlement of the final status of Kosovo. The EU is split over recognition of the province. While most countries are ready to recognise such a declaration, others -- including Spain, Greece, Cyprus, Romania and Slovakia -- have reservations regarding separatist movements within their own countries.

France takes on the rotating presidency in the second half of the year, and President Nicolas Sarkozy has adopted high-profile stances on many of the crucial issues confronting Europe. Given its strong views on these matters, France may find it hard to run a truly impartial and effective presidency.

Buy Prospects 2008, Oxford Analytica's examination of key themes and issues for 200, written by leading members of Oxford Analytica's contributor network

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The EU has struggled to develop a clear or coherent strategy for relations with Russia, Iran and Turkey, and the status of Kosovo.