Vacuum in Pakistan

Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto's assassination has left a vacuum at the heart of a political system already mired in crisis.

If a general election goes ahead in the country within a few weeks, it will install a new prime minister to share power with President Pervez Musharraf. Yet who could do the job? And is a modus vivendi with Musharraf possible?

Pakistan is set to announce if the January 8 elections should be delayed in response to rioting that erupted after last week's assassination of Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leader Bhutto.  In the context of unrest, Musharraf may yet feel tempted to postpone elections. Postponement would please the ruling Pakistan Muslim League (Quaid-e-Azam) (PML-Q), which was opposed even to ending emergency rule. However, any delay could be seen as a threat to the restoration of democracy and a deliberate provocation, further heightening tension.

Potential PM?

If elections go ahead as scheduled, it is likely that a massive sympathy vote will bring a landslide election victory for the PPP, whose current co-chairmen are Bhutto's husband, Asif Ali Zardari, and Bilawal her 19-year-old student son.            

Zardari has said he will not be running in the elections himself, and will not be a candidate for prime minister.  Bilawal  is too young to run in the election himself: under Pakistani law, a candidate must be at least 25 years of age.

PPP Vice-Chairman Makhdoom Amin Fahim, who was the party's most senior official in Pakistan before Bhutto's return from self-imposed exile in October, could take the prime minister's job. Like the Bhuttos, Fahim is from aristocratic landholding stock. He also wields cultural authority as a Sufi divine, being the descendant of a family of spiritual leaders, or pirs. Sufism is a branch of Islam that has mystical traditions and practices.

Nevertheless, there are doubts whether Fahim could cooperate with Musharraf. Real authority over the party, and over any PPP-dominated government, is expected to lie with Zardari. He earned himself the soubriquet "Mr. 10 Percent" for allegedly demanding kickbacks on public contracts while Bhutto served as prime minister in the 1980s and 1990s, and is a divisive figure in the country.

Cooperation impossible?

The PPP's recent rhetoric suggests that cooperation with Musharraf is now unlikely. Before the slaying of Bhutto, the secular PPP was seen as a potential ally of Musharraf, who has been elected to another five-year term as president and vowed to restore democracy to Pakistan. But the PPP's new leadership, stricken by the tragedy of Bhutto's murder, has said that cooperation with Musharraf is out of the question, and accused the president of having blood on his hands. 

The PPP will remain an important political force, its strong support base demonstrated in a widespread and emotional response to Bhutto's death. Yet the country lacks a credible political leader who can command national support. It also leaves the military enhanced as an institution, with its willingness to defend Musharraf on the streets likely to play a key role shaping developments in the early weeks of 2008.