US Middle East policy failure?

US President George Bush enters the final year of his presidency badly wrong-footed in almost every area of US Middle East policy, and risks leaving office having accomplished none of his goals in the region.

He will not be able to claim any unadulterated Middle East policy 'victories' by the time he leaves office. Instead, he will hand on the Iraq, Iran and Israeli-Palestinian problems to his successor in substantial disarray, while the Middle East democratisation push that he cast as the signature effort of his second term has been all but abandoned. While history may yet vindicate a few aspects of his record in the Middle East, no candidate of either party is likely to embrace it during the 2008 presidential election.

Conditions in Iraq are better than they were in early 2007, which is more of a reflection on how bad things were rather than how good they have become. It is clear that the US military will depart, but how and when it will do so remains vague. Bush in September conceded that his 'surge' was ending and a phased withdrawal was imminent in order to secure continued congressional support. Yet Congress has not forced him to define a withdrawal timetable.

As for Iran, the prospect of comprehensive negotiations with the country is wholly unpalatable for Bush, not least due to the personal views and style of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad. The limited talks conducted through the US ambassador in Baghdad, Ryan Crocker, have produced security dividends and will continue. Iran and the United States share some interests in Iraq, and coordination has helped. However, it is very unlikely that Bush will afford Ahmadi-Nejad a formal approach.