Turkey: focus on reform

During 2008, Turkey's newly re-elected government will have the opportunity to enact controversial reforms at home and stake out an area of independent action abroad.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, leader of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), will seek approval of a controversial new constitution in a referendum before the end of the year, preferably before the summer recess. Debate on the new constitution will bear on the removal both of provisions that lend themselves to an ethnic interpretation of citizenship and of the ban on headscarves on university premises. The new constitution is designed to meet requirements for EU membership. However, the Cyprus problem and other issues will continue to impede membership talks.

Troubles elsewhere may be alleviated. The agreement with Washington in November on measures to choke off the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) bases in northern Iraq has reduced domestic pressure on him to order a large-scale cross-border operation. Minor strikes against PKK insurgents south of the border will continue. Ankara will use the lull in insurgent activity in winter to induce the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) to take concrete action against the PKK.