Russia: Putin likely to fade

The year ahead will mark the next stage of the 'Putin Plan' -- irrespective of whether Vladimir Putin himself plays a key role in its implementation.

The emphasis will be on policy delivery and development, with Dmitry Medvedev in a strong position to succeed Putin as president, having acquired more than two years' experience in charge of Putin's 'national projects'. Medvedev is unlikely to be a temporary figure, or a puppet of Putin. Aged 42, he is on the 'liberal wing' of the Putin camp, and of an independent cast of mind.

Russia is moving into a new phase of political life. The ruling elites regard stabilisation and centralisation as the major achievements of the Putin era. The next stage is development: using a stable system under central control to modernise the country. The political emphasis will therefore shift from elections to delivery.

There will be less political mileage to be had from criticising the failures of the Yeltsin years. The challenge will be to build on the perceived achievements of Putin's two terms and shift the focus to the development of Russia's infrastructure, both institutional and physical.