Lebanon: empty chair

The year ahead will see a prolongation of the intense conflicts over national and regional issues that have deadlocked Lebanese politics since the summer war of 2006.

While a new president may be installed in the first part of 2008, the deep-seated nature of Lebanon's political schisms renders a comprehensive solution highly unlikely.

The presidency has been vacant since Emile Lahoud's term expired on November 23. Although both sides have in principle accepted Army Commander General Michel Suleiman, disagreement remains over the constitutional measures required to elect an army officer, and over the nature of a new government:

• Christian opposition leader Michel Aoun in particular is obstructing Suleiman, as the latter's ascendancy to the president's office would spell the end of Aoun's own presidential ambitions.
• Conditions put forward by Hizbollah linked to fundamental changes in Lebanon's power-sharing formula have re-awakened old fears among the country's Christian population.

Intense Western diplomatic pressure may eventually allow for the election of Suleiman early in the New Year. If so, Suleiman will be a stronger president than Lahoud. However, he is unlikely to produce a solution to the country's fundamental political disagreements.