Japan: coping with division

Politics in Japan during 2008 depend on how the political system deals with the division at its centre.

For the first time, a government is entering a new year in which an opposition party dominates one house of parliament. In theory, the constitutional structure can cope, but it is not clear that it will in practice.

An attempt to pass a new anti-terrorism bill pass will be an early clue. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has extended an extraordinary Diet session to January 15, hoping to push through a controversial bill that would allow the Japanese army to resume its Indian Ocean aid mission. The special law, which allowed the force's participation in international antiterrorism operations, expired in November.

The government-controlled lower house can pass the bill with a two-thirds majority, overriding an uncooperative upper house, but this could precipitate a no-confidence vote in the government. This would not be binding and neither the LDP nor the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) are prepared for an election, so it is in both their interests to back down from confrontation.

The main foreign policy focus will be preparations for the July G8 meeting in Hokkaido. Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda will want to broker agreement on environmental issues.  In his New Year's message, Fukuda promised to spearhead efforts to curb global warming in 2008 after Japan takes over the presidency of the G8 from Germany. Japan has fallen far behind its Kyoto Protocol commitment to cut greenhouse gas emissions.