Africa: challenges in the Horn

The Horn of Africa in 2008 will continue to be one of the world's most active sites for emergency relief operations, international peace-keeping, and diplomatic efforts to broker and maintain peace.

Three crises -- the insurgency in Mogadishu, the deterioration of Ethiopian-Eritrean relations, and the Ethiopian counter-insurgency against the Ogaden National Liberation Front in eastern Ethiopia -- are deeply interlinked and form a dangerous 'conflict complex':

• The Ethiopian military is likely to remain in Somalia well into 2008: its continued occupation of the capital has been a lightning rod for the insurgency, and is costly to Ethiopia financially and diplomatically.

•  A large-scale military build-up on the disputed border between Ethiopia and Eritrea has placed the two in very close proximity, increasing the risk of accidental incidents and escalation. The  stand-off will continue, with hostilities played out through regional and local proxies. Conflict is not inevitable, as both governments have reasons to avoid war
• Ethiopia's biggest domestic challenge in 2008 will be to orchestrate an acceptable end of its brutal counter-insurgency operation in eastern Ethiopia against the ONLF, which since June has produced widespread displacement of civilians and a humanitarian crisis in which 600,000 people are at risk. The government will face deep resentment and a radicalised ethnic Somali population in that region, and could see increased jihadist activity as a result.