Senator Palin?

Sarah Palin will not be the Vice President in 2009… but she may end up being a Senator. Senior Alaskan Senator Ted Stevens currently holds a 4,000-vote lead for re-election, despite his conviction for corruption weeks before the election. If Stevens wins, Senate Republicans will be in the unenviable position of having a convicted felon as their most senior member. Stevens is famously stubborn and is unlikely to resign, so the Democrats will probably expel him -- with embarrassed Republicans acquiescing. There would then follow a special election for the vacant seat, to which Palin could nominate herself -- and win easily.

This may seem surprising considering her unfortunate campaign. A Pew Research poll in October found that 49% had an unfavourable opinion of her compared with 44% who had a favourable opinion, citing her ignorance of policy issues. But Alaska is a conservative gate, and Palin is a candidate with impeccable ideological credentials and a star among the Republican base. Furthermore, she has done more to put Alaska on the national stage than any politician in recent years, possibly ever. If the state can forgive seven felony convictions, it seems reasonable that it will overlook toe-curling performances on national TV.

Palin has yet to make any statements, but it would seem like an obvious next step if her ambition extends to a 2012 presidential bid. Her chances of victory would be remote, but improbable advancement has been a hallmark of her political career so far.