Iran: Top Khat

In light of a new US President and the renewed chance of  rapprochement with Washington, the mooted candidacy of former President Mohammed Khatami in the June 2009 presidential elections may be getting a renewed look. Khatami’s two terms in office between 1997 and 2005 were lacklustre in domestic economic and political reform, but witnessed a distinct thaw in relations between Iran and the West. Khatami’s initiatives since leaving office, centred on the idea of a ‘Dialogue of Civilisations’, have tried to encourage this process.

Replacing the loudmouthed Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, who has made himself into a pariah in the West with his statements on the Holocaust, with a more clubbable figure such as Khatami could go some way towards restoring the normative balance. Iran would no longer be negotiating from a position of isolation; splitting Europe and the United States would be easier, as claims of peaceful intentions would be more plausible coming from Khatami than Ahmadi-Nejad.

Ahmadi-Nejad has been isolated at home, too, evidenced most recently by his failure to mobilise conservative parliamentarians to save his interior minister from dismissal over fake qualifications. His economic policy has been a notable failure, and his policymaking erratic. Khatami’s past experience as president means that he is a known quantity, unlikely to deviate from the broad guidance of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei; it also gives him the electoral stature that other reformist politicians lack. If conservative politicians are frustrated enough with Ahmadi-Nejad, they may well strike a bargain that would guarantee Khatami’s victory and grant him leeway to undertake reforms -- so long as foreign policy, despite despite cosmetic adjustment, remains the same.