Lebanon: Opposites attract

The Secretary General of Hizbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, and the leader of the Future Movement, Saad al-Hariri, are likely to meet during the coming days or weeks, an encounter that would represent a breakthrough in relations between the parties at a time of heightened Sunni-Shia tensions in Lebanon.

Hariri, whose Saudi and US allies have sought to undermine Hizbollah, has until now avoided dealing with Nasrallah and worked in step with his fierce opponents. The violence of May 2008 changed the equation. Hizbollah emerged strengthened by the proof of its military superiority in Lebanon, while Hariri’s March 14 movement faltered at the realisation that there were limits to Western backing. By bringing the opposition into the government and redrawing the electoral districts, the Doha deal which ended the violence made the political system closer reflect Lebanon’s real balance of power.

However, by invading Sunni neighbourhoods, Hizbollah created a deep rift with much of the Sunni community, leading to sporadic violence.  Hizbollah’s problems were exacerbated by a fumbled alliance with a fringe Sunni group, which provoked immediate outrage from the broader Sunni community and was cancelled within hours. A meeting could pave the way to a return to the era of Hariri’s father, Rafiq al-Hariri, who maintained good relations with Nasrallah despite his own Western ties and policy disagreements between the two.

Hizbollah, and the opposition more broadly, are looking forward to the parliamentary elections in 2009. Hizbollah aspires to a leadership role in Lebanon, and in order to do so needs to be able to work across sectarian lines. Last month Hizbollah met Druze representatives, and the group continues to participate in official reconciliation talks.

Past mooted meetings between Nasrallah and Hariri have been thwarted by “security concerns” – shorthand for pressure on Hariri by his US, Saudi, and March 14 allies. If he feels free to go ahead, it will be yet another signal that the balance of influence in the country has changed decisively.