Nobel intentions?

Friday sees the announcement in Oslo of the Nobels fredspris, or  Nobel Peace Prize.

The event corresponds with the 60th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, and rumour has it that a activist for human rights will get the prize (the last few have gone to reward social and climate activism, and to UN nuclear officials)

Apart from the money -- 10 million Swedish kronor last year, or 1.4 million dollars-- the prestige has other benefits. A study last year found that winners in the scientific Nobel prizes lived around two years longer than mere nominees.

One person who might appreciate that is Hu Jia, a political, environmental and HIV activist tipped for the peace prize this year. Currently in solitary confinement as part of a 42-month prison sentence for subverting the state, Hu’s health is reported by relatives to be seriously degraded, his liver disease aggravated by his present conditions.

Having only given one other peace prize to a Chinese person, the committee is rumoured to be giving Hu the nod, over other candidates including former Colombian hostage Ingrid Betancourt. While human rights groups have expressed approval, the Chinese government has reacted with displeasure -- the other Chinese laureate, after all, was the present Dalai Lama in 1989.

Even to his supporters, Hu Jia is not an unblemished candidate: at 27 he is young, and he is nationalistic, having participated in anti-Japanese protests. Still, candidates with a far more chequered past have gone on to win, and unlike the other Nobel awards, which are given in recognition for a lifetime’s work, the peace prize is also there to provide a platform for ongoing work. The prize helped former US Vice President Al Gore and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change over the issue of climate change, and to Grameen bank founder Muhammad Yunus in his effort to popularise microfinance. In spite of concerns that microfinance is coming to resemble ‘sub prime’ lending as it grows and become less personal, it is still expanding -- Yunus has reached a deal to take micro credit to Mexico, underwritten by ubiquitous tycoon Carlos Slim.

The Nobel committee, facing accusations that lacked courage in avoiding peace-based candidates in recent years, and remembering the organization’s past decisions (the Nobel committee once avoided giving Ghandi the prize under British pressure; the Indian government eventually had to created a prize in his name instead), may decide to risk Chinese ire and give the nod to Hu.