Bosnia: Election apathy

About 3 million voters are entitled to cast ballots in the local elections in Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH) on Sunday, but not many will bother.  Although the number of candidates and parties suggests a lively political scene, most voters are dissatisfied with the detachment from reality of the political class, which concentrates not on bread-and-butter issues appropriate for local elections, but the same old identity-based politics from the 1992-95 war.

The Serbian party, the Independent Social Democrats of Milorad Dodik, is likely to confirm its political supremacy in Bosnia’s Republika Srpska half, increasing its hold from one-third of municipalities to 50% or more.  Meanwhile, the Croat Democratic Union used to have a firm grip on the Croat-dominated cantons of Bosnia’s other half, the Federation; but it split in April 2006, and as neither successor party has been able to prevent the further marginalisation of a dwindling population, space could open up for more moderate parties.

The great unknown is the three-way contest in the majority-Bosniak (Muslim) municipalities, between the Party of Democratic Action (SDA), the Party for BiH (SzBiH) and the non-nationalist Social Democrats (SDP).  All three have disappointed voters many times before,who may favour such smaller parties as the Bosnian Patriotic Party of former BiH Army commander Sefer Halilovic.  The SDA is likely to perform best, if only by default:  the SzBiH has staked everything on its popular and charismatic leader, Haris Silajdzic, who has been almost invisible throughout the campaign; most of the electorate have tired of egocentric SDP leader Zlatko Lagumdzija. The poll will be a triumph if the turnout does not fall below the 45% recorded at the last local elections in 2004.  However, voting trends are not encouraging -- only about 10% of young people vote; many hope to leave.