Bangkok dangerous

Thailand’s capital goes to the polls on Sunday to choose a new governor. The favourite, Apirak Kosayodhin, is deputy leader of the opposition Democrat Party and has held one term as governor already. He is being challenged by Prapas Chongsa-nguan, a former boss of the city’s transport system running for the ruling People Power Party (PPP). The campaign has been brightened up by two other contenders: a former proprietor of massage parlours, who says that politics is a more dirty business than his old line of work, and a glamorous lawyer known for her high heels and pink outfits. The latter briefly made headlines after her campaign manager drowned in an electoral stunt.

The campaign has a distinctly middle class feel. Key issues have been green space, stray dogs, and transport. The problems of slum dwellers, who say that proposed clearances threaten their dwellings and livelihoods, have not featured much. Nor have the concerns of migrants from the poor north-east, who are portrayed more as nuisance street vendors than a legitimate constituency.

The campaign is interesting less for the result -- Apirak will romp home –- than for its status as a bellwether of Thailand’s deeper political crisis, which has left it at an impasse.

Last month, Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej lost his job after the nation’s top court deemed he had broken the constitution. Samak said his offence -– accepting money for cooking show appearances -- hardly merited his removal. His party argues that it has an overwhelming democratic mandate, representing the historically-marginalised people of the poor north-east.

But in much of middle-class Bangkok, his complaints fall on deaf ears. Samak is viewed as a catspaw for Thaksin Shinawatra, the former prime minister and telecoms tycoon who is seen as a ‘King across the water’, pulling the government’s strings from exile in London. Samak’s successor, Somchai Wongsawat, has been hit by a lawsuit from the same senator whose initiative ousted Samak. In the meantime, the courts continue to chip away at the PPP and may soon order it to be dissolved.

When Apirak Kosayodhin wins a second term on Sunday, as is almost certain, it will only reinforce this regional and class divide. Somchai’s government is unlikely to last long.