Iraq: Sunnis take fright

Wednesday marks the start of a process under which Sunni paramilitary irregulars, called variously ‘Sons of Iraq’, ‘Awakening Councils’ and (most improbably) ‘Concerned Local Citizen Groups’, are supposed to be transferred from US to Iraqi government control.  Thus far, they have been paid $300 a month by the US military, with which they have cooperated with great success in marginalising al-Qaida in Iraq and restoring security to several of the Sunni provinces most affected by the insurgency.  Of the 100,000 or so Sons of Iraq, about half are based in or around Baghdad.  It is these who are to be transferred onto the Iraqi government payroll. 

The Iraqi government has agreed on paper, saying it will incorporate 20% of them into the army and police and find government jobs for the rest.  However, the Shia-dominated government has made clear how wary it is of the whole process -- particularly of embracing former Sunni insurgents, who until recently had targeted their co-religionists.  Indeed the government recently arrested some Council leaders for their past role in the insurgency.  For their part, the Sons of Iraq are equally concerned about their fate, with fears ranging from unemployment to being targeted by remaining al-Qaida elements. 

The US military has contingency plans in place, in case of a problematic handover (continuing to pay the Council members) but this is only a short-term measure. One of the key factors underpinning the security gains of this year -- rated by some US military figures as more important than the troop surge itself -- remains in the balance.