Ecuador: Correa plans

On Sunday, Ecuadoreans go to the polls for a referendum on whether to amend the constitution. Trading off widespread dissatisfaction with the political class, president Rafael Correa is attempting to win greater powers for himself.

Constitutional reform in Ecuador approaches the status of national pastime (there have been twenty such documents since the country’s birth in 1830), and the most recent political structure (in place since 1998) has tended to create weak presidencies: none of Correa’s predecessors in the past decade has seen out a full term of office.

Apart from strengthening the presidency, the document also introduces a raft of other changes including to military relations (preventing foreign military bases on Ecuadorian soil, so closing off the possibility that the US Manta Air Force Base might have its leased renewed) and social issues (including changes to rules on abortion and same-sex marriage). Opposition, from other parties, the media and the church – has been intense, but Correa has the advantage of his skills as a communicator, and a knack for populist gestures. On September 24, Ecuador seized the assets of a Brazilian firm accused of building inadequate hydro-electric facilities. As with other dramatic moves from Correa, the actions taken are likely to be smaller than the threats -- a threatened default on Brazilian debt is unlikely to materialise – but it does form part of a statist expropriating trend that might cause the international financial community a twinge of unease.