Austria: Haider high?

Austrian politicians will spend the next 48 hours trying to mobilise 2 million undecided voters to go to the ballot boxes on Sunday.

After a surprise victory in 2006, the Social Democrats (SPOe) were forced into a grand coalition with their rivals, the Conservatives (OeVP), but relations were unproductive from the start. Their loveless marriage collapsed in July, after only 18 months in office and to the relief of most voters and businesses. However, it is far from clear whether the election prompted by the collapse will be able to produce more effective government.

While both big parties are likely to suffer heavy losses (around 5-8 points) compared to their 2006 results, it is not clear which will fare worse. The SPOe chancellor candidate is far more popular than his Conservative rival, but Austrians must vote for parties, rather than leaders, and neither the SPOe not the OeVP have been able to establish a decisive opinion poll lead. Meanwhile, the far-right advances. The populist FPOe has firmly established itself as the third-largest party, at 17% in the polls, and even the breakaway BZOe (led by controversial politician Joerg Haider) currently enjoys 8% support -- both figures well above 2006 levels.  The Greens, expected to gain from electoral dissatisfaction, are languishing at 12%. 

If the eventual vote mirrors these polls, the only viable two-party grouping would be another ‘grand coalition’.  Even if a major party goes against its rhetoric and allied with the ‘shameful’ FPOe, it might still lack a workable majority- and both the Greens and BZOe would refuse to enter power with the FPOe, out of ideological opposition and hatred, respectively.  A minority government is also unlikely, having never been tested in Austrian politics. Much will depend on turnout: these are the first national  elections in which 16 and 17-year-olds will be allowed to vote, and the far-right is popular among the under-30s. 

Still, one prediction is easier to make: whatever coalition emerges will be ill-equipped to end the recent Austrian political stalemate.