emerging trend

Iraq: Back to work

Parliament reconvenes after its summer recess on Tuesday.  Before members went off on their summer holidays, they failed to approve the provincial elections law because of an unresolved dispute between Arabs and Kurds over the contested city of Kirkuk.  According to the election commission, parliament has to approve the election legislation by the following Monday, September 15, if polls -- already postponed form October 1 -- are to be held by the end of the year. 

Holding these elections, which Sunnis largely boycotted in 2005, is crucial to sustaining the security improvements in many parts of Iraq, as reflected in this week’s US handover of security control of Anbar province to Iraqi security forces.  Security in the formerly violent province has been transformed by the Sunni revolt against the excesses of the foreign-led Al-Qaida in Iraq (AQI), and Sunnis’ cooperation with US forces under the ‘Awakening Councils’ banner.

Consolidating these security gains is also dependent on US plans to incorporate of many Sunni irregulars, now on the US payroll, into Iraqi Security Forces, with the remainder being offered civilian jobs.  However, although it has agreed on paper to take responsibility for their future on October 1, the Shia-dominated Maliki government has been dragging its feet, and indeed has arrested some Awakening Council leaders, wary of embracing former insurgents.

The onset of provincial elections presents a dilemma:  it is exacerbating Arab-Kurdish tensions over Kirkuk, which have risen in recent weeks in mixed areas of Diyala province.  On the other hand, holding them is vital if Sunnis are to be given a real political voice. 

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The reconvened Iraqi parliament has to please all of the people, in not much time.

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